Friday, December 20, 2013

Hey, At Least They Fight

When Chris Collins was hired, many fans hoped to see an improvement on the defensive end of the court. After 11 games, the numbers certainly suggest that Northwestern is a decent defensive team, particularly in terms of scoring efficiency, eFG%, and OReb%. Moreover, the ‘Cats look like a slightly-above-average offensive team.

Scoring Efficiency
Offense
Defense
D-I Avg
Efficiency
103.90
99.90
103.50
Four Factors
Offense
Defense
D-I Avg
eFG%
49.90%
46.40%
49.50%
TO%
17.00%
16.30%
18.60%
OReb%
27.20%
27.20%
31.80%
FTA/FGA
43.90
44.70
41.30

Dig a little deeper, though, and the picture isn’t quite as rosy. To this point, NU has played four KenPom top-100 teams (0-4 in those games, too), two 100-200 teams (1-1), and five over-200 teams (5-0). Here’s a pair of charts that break the numbers into those groups.







The ‘Cats have been positively awful against top-100 competition, far below average in both offensive and defensive efficiency. This is particularly troubling since the entire rest of the B1G is ranked in the KenPom top 100. So while Chris Collins landed another 2014 commitment today, adding a second PG to a class currently 25th in ESPN's rankings, the current state of affairs in Northwestern basketball is not good. It's unfortunate that Collins has been unable to get much out of a relatively healthy and talented (by NU standards, at least) team. I'll have more on what's going on, including strategy and individual players, before the conference season tips.

No comments:

Post a Comment